A couple of days ago, I posted a commentary that, among other things, inferred that the data coming out of our nation’s capital is massaged to the point of being virtually worthless.

Just today, at the ZeroHedge website, I read the following very interesting observations of someone who should know about government statistics. I quote:

“Keith Hall believes the US economy is a lot sicker than the 7.6 percent unemployment rate would lead you to believe. And he should know.

Hall was, from 2008 until last year, the guy in charge of Washington’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that compiles that rate. “Right now [it’s] misleadingly low,” says Hall, who believes a truer reading of those now wanting a job but without one to be more than 10 percent.

The fly in the ointment is the BLS employment-to-population ratio, which is currently at 58.7 percent. “It’s lower than it was when the recession ended. I think that’s a remarkable statistic,” says Hall, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va.

That level tells Hall the real unemployment rate is actually about 3 percentage points higher than the BLS number. If the jobless rate is unacceptable at 7.6 percent, it’d be shockingly bad if he is right and the true rate is 10.6 percent.”

Me again – now you know just how tight the spot Mr. Bernanke is in. I wonder if it’s a coincidence that the initials for “Bernanke Speaking” are “BS”.

Our financial ship of state sails blindly into uncharted waters, while the captain and crew wear their rose colored glassed and see only a bright future. It is sad that one of the few bright spots I see in our future is that, because I am an old fart, I won’t be alive to suffer the worst of it!

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Comments Protected by WP-SpamShield Spam Blocker

See the Music of the Market

The unique trading method that is Trading Between the Lines